/biz/ - Business & Finance

also how long would that take me

4.2million clicks

let me rephrase the question this way

at what satoshi amount should i bet to where it doesnt matter anymore and it should be roughly .50% loss

surely a couple thousands of runs

sorry op, those sites are scams...iv'e seen a post similar to this recently where someone 'won' .8btc but had to deposit .1 to withdraw. How many confirmations does the deposit address have?

>>10177277
hmm lets see
lets say its 10s per roll
42m secs.... yes... a bit of math.....
about a year and a half of non stop clicking according to my calculations

>>10177314
see >>10177304

whats a good number i should be betting to where it doesnt matter anymore

like if i bet 50,000 satoshi i only have to roll it 800 times

but is there a chance i lose a fuck load

over only 800 times

>>10177341
its a mathematical question
im not good at math

whats a good number to where i wont lose barely anything statistically

>>10177250
Are you really this dumb anon? You have just as much chance of losing that .42 betting it in any small increments as you do betting it all at once. You can't guarantee you only lose .50%, in fact there's a 50.5% chance you lose .42 btc no matter how you play it.

i can bet any amount what number would you pick

to guarantee you lose as little as possible

50,000 satoshi?

20,000 satoshi?

20,000 satoshi is 2000 spins

>>10177369
are you serious dude?

surely i would only lose .50% over a million times right?

>>10177369
is this guy serious?????????

surely over a million times 49.50% comes out to 49.50%

if not then math is fundamentally flawed

>>10177369
If you have 1 million dollars and you had to bet to cash it, would you do it in one coin flip or 1000? One coin flip and you either gain a million or lose on, smaller portions and 1000 coin flip pretty much guarantees 500k

Guess which one smart guy would pick?

>>10177250
nah you can only withdraw less than what you deposited

>>10177418
I mean 1 million instead of 500k, if you double your winnings if you guess right.

send me .1 btc and i will write u a bot to do the clicks for you

Just get a macro program

>>10177418
>>10177439
>>10177447
i probably will use an autoclicker

my problem is how many am i doing

1 million spins?

500 k spins?

i can pick any number up to 4.2 million
but that will probably take way too long

>>10177418
The math is the same no matter how you do it you fucking brainlet.

if i could get away with like 5000 spins that would be the best because i can do it myself

i just need to know what the math is

how quickly 49.50% vs 50.50% will balance out

lmao just say good bye to you money, you're never getting it back. 100% a scam.

>>10177468
you are literally fucking retarded
did you drop out of elementary school or what

>>10177384
>>10177399
>>10177418
You're right, I am the retard, been a long day. I guess it just depends on how many you want to do. Or are the odds adjustable up to 99.5%, couldn't you just bet the full .42 at that?

>>10177250
uve got scammed breh

>>10177504
i have to bet 49.50% every time

lets say you coinflipped 10,000 times

would 20,000 more times guarantee you get closer to being 49.50% exactly

because we all know that if you only roll it 10 times you can easily lose 9 out of 10 of those

so what number would you pick to stay safe i need a math man

Is this shit even provably fair?

waiting for a math major or programmer to join the thread

how many flips before a coinflip becomes essentially 50,50

how much closer to 50,50 would 1 million coinflips be than say 10,000

is it worth it

and what number would YOU pick in order to keep most of your money

you want to come as close to 50, 50 as possible

at what point does it stop mattering

after 2 million do you get more accurate to where its worth my time

>Be OP
>click a mouse 4.2 million times
>after 2 years it’s finally done!
>realize it was a scam and he’s out of everything he wagered
Topkek

Do it in crements of reverse Fibonacci

>>10177250
I’m pursuing a PhD. Took graduate level stats classes. 50-100 flips should definitely be more than enough to lose ~50% of them.

>>10177664
stop trolling me dude

you can easily lose 80 of those 100 if youre really unlucky

seriously gaslighter gtfo

op worked ubereats for 20$ a day

this is his whole stack please help him guys

ive got aids on my balls an,d pussy

>>10177611
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Here you go you fucking moron. IRL your best shot is to bet it all in one go.

The variance goes down like 1/sqrt(N) where N is the amount of coin flips.

Standard deviation is sqrt(p(1-p)) where p=49.5%. So for N coin flips your standard deviation will be sqrt(p(1-p))/sqrt(N).

You plug in the numbers, Im about to go to sleep. This

This means that you'd have 95% of chance of your outcome to lie within +/- the standard deviation. Your choice to pick a convenient N

>>10177690
i will seriously never go to 162 again youre like a demonic frog spirit dude

ive never seen such a nasty and toxic person than you

go away i hope you get banned dude you make me physically sick like im going to puke like youre the exorcist


>>10177698
see thats something i needed
so that says over 1000 times you get close to even

thats very doable if i only need 1000 times

>>10177703
well i made the thread because i want someone to help me out whats a good number of spins to where i can get my money out safely only losing .50% or close to it

>>10177728
looks more like anything over 300 to me is a waste of time

>>10177611
I don't think increasing the amount of rolls will improve your chances here. As you approach an infinite amount of rolls, you basically guarantee that you will lose to the casino. That's why they're literally forcing you to roll more. I would just bet the .42 BTC at once.

>>10177744
seems a little sketchy only doing it 300 times dont you think

surely i can lose 200 of those 300 if i run really unlucky no?

would you trust a mere 300 with being 50 - 50

>>10177611
damn this guy is a retard, it is simple math.
just do 1k rolls and you are good, doing more rolls. makes the result more certain, lets say you have 1million and you do 1 million rolls then your balance should be very close to 499500 with 1k rolls it would be around 490000 and 500000

>>10177250

did you accept their "bonus"?

NEVER accept any bonuses from online casinos, its just a trap to ensure that you are never able to cash out due to "rollover requirements"

>>10177250
these websites are all scams

just put the .42 on a 50% roll

dot it pussy

>>10177741
Give me a second I'll write it down

>>10177766
so youre saying 1k

ok so far we have 1k spins a good number

does anyone think i should do more

If you lose two times in a row with small bets you should go all in. The odds that you lose 3 times in a row are very small.

do more lil bitch

HAHAHHHAH YOU GOT SCAMMED DUDE


THEY'LL NEVER LET YOU CASH OUT. .42 BTC IS PROBABLY MORE PROFIT THAN THEY'VE MADE TOTAL

YOU'RE A RETARD.

YOU SENT YOUR BTC AND YOU WILL NEVER GET IT BACK.

THIS IS HOW CASINOS OPERATE, NOT JUST BITCOIN ONES.

ALL IS GOOD UNTIL YOU TRY TO CASH OUT LOL

EVEN IF YOU DID ANOTHER ROLL AND WENT OVER THE REQUIREMENT, THEY'D FIND SOMETHNG ELSE LIKE SAYING YOUR IP IS BLACKLISTED ETC

>>10177764
surely you could lose 2000 out of 3000 if you're really unlucky too, still not very much a difference. If I were I'd just have some balls and do another single flip, worst case you break even right?

All these betting sites are scams. You should've known better

>>10177803
no fucking way dude dont try to convince me of that

i already did all i needed to do

>surely you could lose 2000 out of 3000 if you're really unlucky too,

ya but its less likely if its 3000 spins dont you think vs 300

thats what im trying to do right now

>>10177801
they are going to ghost him

>>10177250
Why are so many people suggesting a shit ton of rolls? is this board retarded?
Lots of rolls = guaranteed loss due to odds being in the casino's favor
1 roll = you might at least get lucky

>>10177786
So the thing is if you could do it in an infinite number of rolls you would get away with exactly the mean, which is :

A*2p

Where A is your BTC stash and p is the probability of winning the roll.

Now, if you give me a confidence interval, as well as a probability, I can tell you how many rolls you will need to be inside the confidence interval with this probability.

Example, if you tell me confidence intervak 0.01 BTC and probability 99.9% I can compute how many roll it would need so that the BTC you leave with with be within 0.01BTC of the expected value, with probability 99.9%

>>10177854
ya but their odds are only .50% over me

so i will only lose .50% and im ok with that

rather than betting everything and losing everything

>>10177856
Note that the mean value is losing A*(2*0.495) = A*.99

So you would loose 1% of your stash, not 0.5%

>>10177856
ya sure within .01 bitcoin sounds good

hit me with a number

Start out betting with 10 satoshis then if you lose a roll double the bet next time and so on. It's the system casinos don't want you to know about.

What probability of falling within 0.01BTC do you want ? 99% is good ?

>>10177899
ya or 98 is fine or within .02 bitcoin

whatever it needs to be it doesnt need to be perfect i just want to know what a good number is to get me somewhat close to even

>>10177919
Alright gimme a sec

the site actually has auto-roll i just found out so im good
i dont need to click a bunch

>>10177801
>THEY'LL NEVER LET YOU CASH OUT. .42 BTC IS PROBABLY MORE PROFIT THAN THEY'VE MADE TOTAL

you're a fucking retard. Fortunejack is one of the biggest BTC casinos. If they didn't pay withdrawals, word would spread like wildfire and they would cease to exist.

That's not the way online casinos scam people. They do it by offering "bonuses" that idiots like OP accept. They only tell you in the fine print that there are "wagering requirements" when you accept the bonus. It basically ensures that you will never be able to cash out, as you will lose everything trying to meet the requirements

>>10177962
i didnt accept any bonus
this is a universal rule on the site apparantly in their terms and services

you have to bet atleast 2x your deposit

The higher the # of clicks, the closer to absolute odds payouts you're almost guaranteed to be. I would think a few thousand or even a few hundred would suffice.

>>10178001
>>10178001
i dont need to click i found out they have autoroll and it goes fucking fast

i can easily see doing millions in a day

>>10178018
congrats. You should end up with exactly the same, or a 0.5% loss at most, statistically.

>>10178018
so it does 11+ clicks/second?

>>10178032
here ill set a timer and ill tell you how many it did in 30 seconds

then we can calculate how long itll take

im doing 10 satoshi a spin

for 4.2 million spins

>>10178032
it did 107 spins in 30 seconds

how long is this shit gonna take for 4.2 million

i can always cut in half and do 20 satoshi maybe

>>10178072
about 2 weeks
but maybe you should lower it to 5 satoshi just to be sure

The probability of 50 wins in 100 tries is pic related.
I'll try to make an approximation. Wait a sec.

>>10177975
The odds are as follows :

For 500 rolls :
82.15% to be within 0.03 BTC
63.02% to be within 0.02 BTC
34.62% to be within 0.01 BTC

For 800 rolls :
91.05% to be within 0.03 BTC
74.23% to be within 0.02 BTC
42.86% to be within 0.01 BTC

For 1000 rolls :
94.24% to be within 0.03 BTC
79.44% to be within 0.02 BTC
47.32% to be within 0.01 BTC

>>10178049
>>10177899
I am this anon btw, got banned because of a Q ref link kek

>>10178113
what about for 4.2 million rolls
thats what we are talking about now
he can easily fail 400/500 clicks

>>10178113
Smakl precision, when I say " to be within ..." I mean within the interval around the expected value, i.e. 99% of your stash.

If you can do it in 1000 rolls your pretty safe, 2000 if you want to be extra safe

>>10177250
lel, reminds me of the casino customer support person who posted the other day about how their job was to figure out how not to pay people

>>10178104
ya it is about 2 weeks i just did it too

10 satoshi is minimum bet

im probably going to raise it to like 200 satoshi a spin though just so i can get it over with by tonight

>>10178140
no im not waiting 2 weeks im probably just doing 200 satoshi or some shit be done by the night

>>10178140
First of all, are you retarded ? I've written the probability of failure its pretty fucking low (not counting that if you fail there is a 1/2 chance that you actually get more BTC than expected)

But if you want to know, for 4.2 million rolls the probability of falling within 0.001 BTC is higher than 99.99%, but 4 million rolls is totally overkilll...

>>10178113
thanks for your help but with autoroll im pretty much just going to be doing hundreds of thousands of spins

.42 btc / .00000300 satoshi = 141,000 spins

141,000 spins / 107 spins per 30 seconds = 1317

1317 * 30 = 39,532 seconds

39,532 seconds = 10 hours

sounds good?

>>10178149
Even 200 sats is being overly paranoid desu.

2000 sats is 200k rolls, just look at the numbers

>>10178195
ok forget about 4 million rolls
we are now at 4.2/20=210000 rolls
what are the odds for that

>>10178220
Actually 20k rolls, but even then.
>>10178200
Yeah if you want to wait you are easily golden with that number

>>10178220
2000 sats is 21,000 rolls

.42 / .00002000 = 21000

>>10178227
I closed my computer but I can easily tell you that you will have certainly a >99.9% of being within 0.01BTC with that number

>>10178240
Yeah I corrected myself, was computing with 4.2BTC stash. Alk my other numbers are correct though, and with 20k rolls it is virtually impossible for you to loose more than 0.02btc

>>10178247
that doesnt sound right....
200k means a lot of spins he can fail...

alright im about to get this show on the road

400 satoshi 8 hours about the amount of time ill be awake

fuck it
i could do less but hopefully this is enough

watch me lose a shit ton lmao

about exactly 100k spins is what it comes out to

lets go boys

>>10178240
Last thing before I go to sleep, bear in mind that the probabilities I gave you are for falling WITHIN the interval.

Example if I say there is 95% of falling within 0.01, there is actually a 5% chance of falling out, but this could be either 2.5% chance of losing 0.01BTC more, either 2.5% of WINNING 0.01BTC more.

Keep that in mind, but again, with more than 1k rolls you will very likely not loose more than 0.03BTC at the very worst

If you feel generous send some crumbs my way : 189uFcX5gCipwSq8Q2X4E6CV35jqMAXWtq

Im a poor physicist

Thanks sir, much appreciated sirs

>>10178264
You are retarded, I can do nothing about that. That's not how probabilities work

>>10177418

use auto rol at the highest percent and lowest sat value and wait about 12 hours

>>10178301
maybe ill hook you up if i dont lose a lot ill see

i could send you like 10$ or some shit but the withdrawal fee on bitcoin isnt even worth that

>>10178335
thats what im doing its gonna be 100k spins

400 satoshi

8 hours

i can wait 2 weeks at 10 satoshi if i wanted but fuck it

>>10178347
dude 100k spins is already mega overkill, no use in doing millions.

If the rolls are fair you have nothing to fear, numbers don't lie

OP stop being a pussy ass faggot.
You're already up .42, just roll once for .42
If you win you're up .84 and can withdraw.
If you lose you're even and can withdraw.

>>10178347
yeah id still rather wait it out if i were you
just to be sure

>>10178377
do you have a paypal id rather just do it like that

>>10178108
Just realized that this is fucking retarded because the odds aren't 50/50. So the more tries, the smaller the cance of being right at least half the time.

>>10178377
pls paypal

i dont want to send coins to a bitcoin address

you cant really withdraw that itll cost more than what youll get

this is awesome because it shows my luck percentage and how much i wagered already

im running 200 satoshis right now

and im running better than expected

>>10178491
it looks like you are getting really lucky

>>10178506
im expecting the LUCK to be exactly 49.5 at the end of it

well see if we were right

desu ive only done like 1500 spins and it seems like this would have been sufficient


im already at 50
it happened quicker than we all expected

Found a calculator
http://www.wolframalpha.com/widgets/view.jsp?id=a3604fe97393c8136cd878bc0bc36811

With 10k tries, the chance of winning 4.5k times is almost 100%. That's almost breaking even. Anything over 10k is overkill.

>>10178540
ya im gonna increase the satoshi a lot it is WAY overkill to do what im doing

the shit balanced out very quickly

>>10178554
Even with 1k trials, it's a 99.8% chance of getting 450 wins, ie keeping 90% of your btc.

gook

>>10178569

Holy shit anon, you have no idea of the basic fundamentals. Let me spoonfeed you:

A probability ratio does not guarantee an outcome, you can loose a 99% gamble if you're the unlucky 1%. You can roll a dice a million times and always have it land on the number 6 without it being rigged. The probability of such phenomenon occuring is 1/6, or roughly 16,6%.

Now, if you roll one million dices simultaneously and try to describe the mathematical probability of all of the million dices simultaneously giving a number 6 in the same roll, you'd find out that in fact it's way less probable: (1/6)^1,000,000 or roughly 0% (as expected). Why? Because you are conditioning the individual outcome of the roll to a bigger and less probable phenomenon.

Your probability, if true as described by the website, is 49.50% of winning a dice roll no matter how many times you repeat the process; as the outcome of the next roll is not affected by the result of the present roll.

Mathematically, the more you roll the dice, the more you're giving leeway to the statistic to balance out and "win" a 49,50% of your initial deposit. If you won against the odds in a roughly 1/2 ratio, chances are you'll lose the second roll betting the earnings of the first one and be stuck with your initial deposit, thus wanting to gamble again your full stack until you loose everything.

You're stuck gambling that at least one more time, buddy

>>10178603
no im not dude its working

see >>10178591

toot ban this demon
>>10178590

>>10178603
He already won almost .5btc and is now trying to keep 99% of his gains. The more tries with smaller bets, the higher the chance of keeping 99% of all bets/ of winning 49.5% of the time.

>>10177250
So i went to the website in pic related which flips a coin with 50/50 odds. All of the flips were done five times to limit the amount of inaccuracy in the results. I started with 10 consecutive flips, then 100, 1000 and 10000. Then I made the average of these to see how close to 1 each amount of flips would be (50/50=1). The average I got I subtracted 1 from it to know how near we would be from 1 (the uncertainty sort of). Obviously 10 000 is the nearest from 1. I also plotted this as a graph and put the equation. It seems to me that you wont get much nearer 0 of uncertainty the more rolls you add but enjoy. I'm sure the equation could be useful to know how many rolls you are willing to do.

y = 0.9982x^(-0.636)
R2 = 0.8921
x=number of rolls
Note: The R^2 isnt terrific

>>10178676
>>10178698

it balanced out very quickly now im just running 1000 sats for the fuck of it

probably take me all night still

doing very very well almost exactly 50 - 50

IT'S A SCAM, RETARD.

>>10177250
Correct.

>>10178707
Tell me how many tries you do and how it turns out, I'd love to know how accurate my shit experiment is.

Hey /biz/
I'm invested in crypto and have stocks. Economics. Blah blah blah.
The real reason I'm here is I've figured something out, and it doesn't take a genius to determine what it is would be of great interest to /biz/
This isn't a $2m marketcap tip, or the next insider claiming an Uber partnership. Mmm mm no no no.
It's about how to get gf.
It's a simple discovery of something hidden in plain sight.
I'm like you, /biz/. Not a catch or a chad by any means.
But.
Fucking.
Flowers.
Never for whatever reason had I ever tried to give a girl flowers. This one girl who cooks at a restaurant I frequent has same shifts as me, so we always end up at the bar together.
Really cute, confident, probably going to run that restaurant soon. My kind of gal.
Thought fuck it. Ima buy flowers and walk in there on my day off when I know she's working and just fucking hand them to her.
I fucking did it and practically the whole place went nuts. Some guy in there called me a good boyfriend and she just blushed.
Now we're going out tonight and she's been texting me non-stop.
Trust me /biz/, this is no larp. I am one of you in so many ways...this is a major breakthrough.
Fucking flowers, /biz/. Best investment you could ever make. Better than shitcoins.

YOU CAN'T CASH OUT OF SITES LIKE THIS THEY WILL FINE PRINT YOU TO DEATH. YOU'RE FUCKED BRO SORRY.

>>10177250
Lmao at the fake picture "Frankie" is using to make you think their support team is full of hot babes, its some half naked Chink or Russian and he's running off with your crypto, 99% of online gambling games are a scam and 100% of crypto gambling games are a scam

>>10178770
its a real frankie

lmao

ya i thought it was funny how the support is some hot babe

she talked like she was one though unironically she talked exactly like a women does

>>10178707
You can do 50k sats and almost get the same results. With almost .5btc, that would be 1000 trials. Pretty much quaranteed to keep 90% of your 0.42btc.
I would up the number to at least 10k desu.

>>10177250
you've learned your lesson.
https://just-dice.com/
don't trust anything else.

>>10178787
i got all night i dont care

this is great though im not losing anything

>>10178798
Man. With 5k trials total (almost 10k sats bets), the chance of 2.3k wins is 99.9999%. That's keeping 92% of your 0.42btc with a 99.9999% chance.

I don't want to wait so long to see you withdraw your bitcoin. Come on.
Put the numbers
0.495 5000 2300 in the calculator
http://www.wolframalpha.com/widgets/view.jsp?id=a3604fe97393c8136cd878bc0bc36811

well im losing .50%

to be exact
so its fine

pretty soon itll be stuck at 49.50

>>10178849
why do you care about waiting for me lol

ill be autistic all i want

>>10178858
I want to see the end result. Maybe they'll come up with a new excuse to deny your withdrawal?

>>10178868
Same, I've been following this thread since inception and I haven't done this to any other thread on here (occasional lurker/newfag).

Excited to see the outcome.

>>10178868
ya watch them say you cant do that you cant bet a million times you have to bet it all

>.<

that would be so aids

i mean i asked the lady if i could do it

all of you falling for this troll. fucking newfags. this guy does this at least once every few weeks posting his yellow fever idol on every post.

>>10178886
See, so try bigger bets. 10k sats.
I showed you the odds of keeping most of it.

>>10178926
im sorry dude you may miss the end result this thread will be gone

ill probably get it

then im gonna buy chainlink with it

all in

and then leave it and never touch it

>>10178886
You'll never withdraw a cent OP. You've been scammed.

blessed tinny

>>10178946
FUCK YOU. There's no need for 1k sat bets

>>10179101
25% of the way there

i can keep the thread open i suppose i dont see why not /biz/ isnt a very busy board especially at these hours

the safest way would be to bet big because the more bets you make the closer you will average to the odds

so you bet big and hope to get lucky and get out

>>10177250
>I have to bet atleast twice of what I deposited
Scam.

>>10179147
I wouldn't call that the "safest" way.
50.5% chance of losing what he won vs +99% chance of keeping +95% with a lot of bets .

>>10179190
nah it's still safer because it's actually the only shot he has at all

>the 20 y/o zoomer who thinks he can scam chinks at betting on their own scam website

what you are doing right now is the functional equivalent of playing a rigged dice game in the street with a pack of niggers

>>10179208
No, it isn't. He already won almost 0.5 but can't withdraw.
With lots of small bets he'll walk home (pretty much guaranteed with 99% chance) with almost the same profit. With your gamble he'll lose his gains with a 50.5% chance.

they actually incentivize you to bet less
the jackpot is 100 satoshi

so i guess im doing 100 satoshi for a few days

>>10178926
op is tinny, a notorious boomer on the site onesixtwo.club
if you want to hear the results thats your best bet :)

>>10179244

>he actually believes they'll allow him to withdraw after XYZ number of bets

>>10178868
>>10178883
meant to reply to these omegasigh

Postgrad in informational discretions; 2,000 rolls will assure you are a faggot.

its gonna take me 24 hours now cuz im going for jackpot

ill go to sleep with it on

here is what is going to happen, you are going to finish your betting cycle and go try to cash out again
the chink behind the screen name "frankie" will tell you that you can't cash out because of (some other fine print) bullshit, and might even string you along and get you to submit information (which they will collect and sell to somebody else)

at some point they will stop replying, and then you will realize you have no recourse the try and get "your" money from them legally

more than likely you never won anything, and the entire thing is a sham with a simple game on top of it, and the "congrats you won!" is entire fabricated in order to coerce people into "betting" (depositing) more

>>10179131

>gambling
>business

>>10179385
i hope not

>>10179289
They just want you to stay long enough to gamble more and not try to withdraw

>>10179423
it's your time and your money

I guess some people need to learn the hard way

>>10179500
i already knew i was doing it the stupid retarded way when i bet .42 btc on a coin flip

>>10178748
...tulips?