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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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>> No.22876834

>>22876639
Seems like it's definitely worth the risk. The shitty part is that you're only making $1 so it's a waste of time anyway.

>> No.22877030
File: 96 KB, 960x562, https___blogs-images.forbes.com_larryolmsted_files_2019_07_Cosmo-TerraceView.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22877030

>>22876834
>Seems like it's definitely worth the risk.
It's not because you are guaranteed to eventually lose.
If you try your strategy 100 times. How many times will you go on a lose streak? 1.6. The more times you use your strategy the better the chances you have as going on the lose streak that you are trying to avoid. Does that make sense?
>The shitty part is that you're only making $1
You're not just making $1. You're making more than that when you lose big and eventually win. For example betting $1,000 after a $500 bet makes you $500 profit, and when combined with previous losses would net about a $200~ win.

>>22876821
To get laid anywhere you need to get in shape, no one wants to have sex with a fatass. There is a "cool wine aunt" epidemic in the USA. Las Vegas is the #1 attraction for "independent" women between 25 and 35. I play the "cool local guy" shtick with ladies I see playing alone at tables. I'm not saying go full retard and be a pick up artist, start with casual conversation and get to know people. Because I'm local I have the advantage. Usually if they place their hands on you after they win a decent amount then you've pretty much got your fling for the night, weekend, or week.

I say the Cosmo because it has the best view of the city, check the picture, and the best lounges for comfort. It also has a higher percentage of women staying there because of the name "Cosmopolitan". You know. The woman's magazine. There are also numerous dance clubs, but Marquee was the best, I think its still closed though.

Coronavirus has been complete shit for me, which is now why I'm into cryptocurrencies lmao.

I would be very wary of any girl coming onto you. That's just not how it works. Escorts are fine and all, but you really need to make sure you aren't getting scammed. You have to know people and if you're a tourist you won't be able to figure out if it's legit. I don't do this because it's way too much money. Hit up something like Bunny Ranch.

>> No.22877046

>>22873686
Jesus an actual unironic idiot

>> No.22877057

>>22877030
Thank you for the based advice, Nevada anon.

>> No.22877066

>>22873686
>the martingale but this time we're gonna add statistical fallacies

>> No.22877079

>>22874976
Great explanation

>> No.22877125

Never bet against a colour streak OP.
Also some tables are more likely to hit certain diamonds more times than others meaning they're more likely to fall in a certain pattern

>> No.22877215

>>22875810
KEKK you fucking retard

>> No.22877263

>>22876217
so it's still possible???????

>> No.22877304

>>22877215
Say something retard.
>>22877263
All the casinos in the world going bankrupt from all the patrons randomly winning all their bets is more likely.

>> No.22878189

nailed it, discussion ended

>> No.22878221

>>22873686
its called the "Martingale strategy". It works, but not on tables with limits. Therefore ever casio has table limits.

>> No.22878253

>>22873686
Betting with low outcome is the easiest way to win money, I do and I put the rest in bitcoin(eth)

>> No.22878764

>>22873718
I won 2k with a 1 dollar bet yesterday tho
better than flipping altcoins

>> No.22879694

>>22873686
>extremely unlikely circumstance that there's like 10+ of the same color in a row.

I play roulette with this strategy in mind. Every roll is an independent event, thus the probability of 10 or more consecutive combos might seem low statistically speaking, in reality it isn't. Every time i play in the casino, i've encountered 20 blacks or reds in a row, or some greens in between before continuing pattern.

>> No.22879749

didn't know biz is so dumb
iq here is below 90
everyone thinking this might actually work is below 80

>> No.22879948
File: 11 KB, 225x225, uuu6.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22879948

>>22879749

>> No.22880485

Best Thread!

>> No.22880778

>>22875787
>The 50/50 probability of the individual event is also an "illusion". In reality there's a 100% chance that the thing that happens happens
Probabilities is just a way to deal with uncertainty, of course we are in a deterministic universe

>> No.22880830

>>22875798
You fail to understand probabilities for what they are. Someone already told you but when 32 reds happened in a row it becomes a 100% sure event. Once it has happen, the probability of getting a 33th red is still 50%. Are you denying that it's 50%?

>> No.22880850

>>22875810
True

>> No.22880903

I did this 3 reds, bet black, ball landed on green. I got wrecked.

>> No.22880925

theyll always be 50% before, no amount of datasets previously can predict future outcomes of a 50/50 output

>> No.22880931
File: 98 KB, 710x565, Nicholas Nassim TalebL1000991-Modifier_E_Caupeil.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22880931

>>22875893
So if you go to a casino and see the roulette doing 32 reds in a row, you will smuggly bet everything on the black since after all the chances of having 33 reds in a rows are statistically low?

You're a total sucker, a roulette have more chance to be trafficked or broken than to do 32 reds in a row, meaning that if it already made 32 reds the probability of the 33th colour being red too is actually higher than it being black.

>> No.22880934

>>22873686
Jesus Christ this is sad. You must be American because only a dumb ass American could understand probability this poorly.

>> No.22880946

>>22880931
true.

>> No.22880979

>>22875983
Pseudo-random is as good as true random in this context and anyways the roulette of a casino is pseudo-random too, meaning deterministic, the only difference is that we don't fully understand the determinism at play

>> No.22880988

>>22880778
Of course we’re not, reliability costs money.

>> No.22881063
File: 89 KB, 792x545, 1561933041891.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] [report]
22881063

>>22876207
Fuck you're right I remember. I think I was even the first one to make one of these threads, good times

>> No.22881105

desu, the colours could even be interchangable, the roulette pits could be clear.
The fact that reality would favour a certain colour because of past probability is pure insanity

>> No.22881124

>>22876231
You don't understand that he is talking about the real word. Things that are almost impossible (0.0000000000000000000000000000001%) can reasonably be called impossible when you are operating in the real world.
The difference betwin neglectable and impossible have no practical importance.

>> No.22881159

>>22873686
Only on BetHero

>> No.22881187

>wait for three reds in a row
>thinks black is now more likely because colors somehow need to even out for probability to work

Anon, I...

>> No.22881205

>>22876639
Ok if you keep playing you will eventually lose, but what if you decide that you stop playing as soon as you are even somewhat in gains? And then you never play ever again? Then you have a 99% probability of having cucked the casino of some amount of money, right?

>> No.22881236

>>22880988
You're stupid, randomness doesn't actually exist it's the just name we give to out uncertainty

>> No.22881256

>>22873686
There was that gang who could estimate the velocity of the wheel very accurately. It took them years of practice after buying an identical wheel from the manufacturer

>> No.22881315

>>22881205
You don't have a 99% chance of winning, in fact you have a greater than 50% chance of losing all your money in the number of runs it will take you to double it, no matter your starting purse and no matter your minimum bet. That's how probability works. The casino does not run any game where you can get an edge against them. Except maybe card counting in blackjack but that takes a lot of work and they kick you out if they catch you doing it.

>> No.22881320

>>22873686
Doesnt work since previous rolls do not make difference in the next one

>> No.22881524

>>22881315
The 50% probability is true for individual bets and it's true once you already have 9 loss in a row for exemple, but before you play, it's a fact that if you decide to fuck off once you win just one time and that your martingal allows for 10 tries before going bust, it's a fact that you have 99% chances to win and fuck off with the banks money.

Casino makes their money from people being greedy, but if youn decide to not be greedy and to take any win at all and then stop forever you have a high probability of making little money and a small probability of losing everything.

>> No.22881579

>>22880931
Don't tell OP this, but a variation of the Martingale involves swapping colors each bet to specifically avoid the Casino rigging something.

>> No.22881624

>>22881579
That's actually very smart to do that. You can also just bet on a random colour each time since after all it's 50% no matter what.

>> No.22881658

Here is the strategy I use:

$100 on red
$10 (each)on 5, 7, 11, 17, 20, 22, 30, 32, 0, 00

Sometimes works, the idea is that you have an above 50% to hit something every spin and have quite a few big win events. Once you are up $200 leave.

>> No.22881709

>>22881624
It's LESS than 50% you retards. What color do you think 0 and 00 are?

>> No.22881914

>>22881709
Rounding to 50% is faster than calculating whatever the exact odd is, for the purpose of this conversation it doesn't matter you fucking nerd

>> No.22882133

>>22874678
Then it hits green 5 times in an hour and you've just spent $50 on drinks.

>> No.22882488

Negative expected value, ball has no memory (independent rolls), table limits... almost everything about the odds has already been said.

But this is /biz/, so let's talk about risk/reward and sunk costs of Martingale which nobody has touched upon yet (short of the image in >>22875207).

>Round 1
Bet 1, Total Exposure 1, Max Profit 1
>R 2
B 2, TE 3, MP 1
>R 3
B 4, TE 7, MP 1
>R 4
B 8, TE 15, MP 1
>R 5
B 16, TE 31, MP 1

You notice something? Your bets grow, your total exposure grows, but your max profit always stays the same - a measly 1x your initial bet. With Martingale every consecutive bet becomes more and more unreasonable. You're throwing good money after bad because of sunk costs. By round 10 you're pushing in an additional 512 for a total investment of 1023 in the hopes of ending up with an over-all profit of 1. Now take a step-back in think if you would put 512 of your hard-earned money on a 50/50 bet that could result either in total loss or in a gain of 1. This is the position Martingale forces you in.

Best case, that means if Martingale works out and you hit your color before you go broke or hit the table limit, you've risked a shitton of your money for a miniscule profit. That's not a sound investment strategy, even if the odds were stacked in your favor (which they aren't).

>> No.22882578

>>22882488
In other words, with Martingale your potential losses are infinite, but your potential profits are capped at your initial bet.

>> No.22883028

>>22876416


I've seen the whole screen filled with black. 20 spins. All black. Wew lad.

>> No.22883028,1 [INTERNAL] 

Won't even try. It never ends well. Maybe I am just that unlucky or something

>> No.22883028,2 [INTERNAL] 

That is not how probability works for sure. Have you tried playing casino games? I don't think all people who do that have $10,000 in their pocket. Moreover, if you play online, there are different rules. I mean, some casinos set a specific winning percentage. So, players can't predict the outcome of the game. My colleague and I play on differents UK online casinos we found on https://www.liveblackjack.org.uk/ . We've tried the same strategy. Despite this, I got a higher income.

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