/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19206703
Ok, I appreciate your information. Why do you think this was the entirety of open interest? These only look like large spikes because the volume has been dead all day.

>>19206399
No, it wasn't.
This was a trade with the possibility of windfall in the short term. There are a billion of these trades, many with a much larger upside. The whole issue with trading is that it's impossible to pick the winners and losers.

The reason tankers were so attractive is because it's a low risk bet with an extremely high upside. You can take a huge position in tankers, hope that you make bank, but know that you can rely on fundamentals to carry you to a reasonable return regardless of whether contango plays pan out. Otherwise just throw your money at a shitcoin and pray for the best.

>>18892522
>>18892639
I would tend to agree. I am conservative as hell, I have never gambled in my life, I win 99% of the XCOM and X-COM campaigns I start, and I have never called anything a sure thing, not even tankers. Honestly, the bond market shitting the bed is the only thing that drove me heavy into equities in the first place

However, this supercontango oil storage crisis is the most tempted I have ever been to leverage everything I own and bet it all on black. The storage crisis is here. This isn't something that propaganda or policies. The Fed can't print us out of it. Congress cant buy us out of it. Retail hopium can't save it. You can't fucking spin the fact that you have millions of barrels of oil sitting around that nobody wants and you churn out more that you can't store anywhere. It's a demand problem, not a supply problem, and DHT just proved that theory.

This thing goes on for at least a few more months. Q2 is nearly certain, Q3 is likely, and Q4 is a reasonable probability. The only thing that I can see that could possibly reverse this thing fast enough to keep people from making money (as long as you properly time your exit and don't get greedy) is a goddamned world war before the end of this month.

>>18883110
It's a dogwhistle to his bros to reposition.
>>18883123
If you cannot figure out why this date is important, you should really stay away from oil in general because it's going to fuck you eventually.
>>18883152
No, they aren't useless, but every few years they go absolutely insane because of the contango game. Oil is a boom/bust industry that crabs like a motherfucker for years in between the action, then spikes hard causing the unaware to fall into a pothole or get fucked by a traffic cone. We're in a bust. If you bought in after February, you bought into the contango play, not the typical underlying business.
>>18883251
>we are supposed to see a small boost in the meanwhile
I agree, I have some very short term spreads designed to take advantage of earnings, but in all reality it may not happen. Market reaction to tankers, and oil in general, are mystery right now, the market should have reacted to demand/supply after seeing what happened in April. There must be some legitimate buy-in to this "worldwide V shaped recovery!" thing, but even if you predict recovery within a year, that still doesn't help the unavoidable truth that Q2 is going to be absolute oil insanity.

>>18752848
NAT is acting like a teenager because Cramer and some youtube personality shilled NAT causing a surge, which triggered algo bullshit. Retail investors don't actually know anything about the space, so they're selling because they see red. The rest are down today because oil futures futures are converging at the moment. THIS IS YOUR ENTRY POINT, not when some fucking moron on /biz/ shows his green lines. I hope you learned your lesson

You can only really gauge the health of a tanker stock based what happens with delivery on oil contracts. The rest is just speculator bullshit. Last month gave us a taste of what's really happening, and what tankers are poised to do.

Oil newfags jesus christ, go play somewhere else before somebody drinks your milkshake

>>18733070
NAT is shit for a lot of reasons, it will underperform compared to its peers if supercontango lasts, it's just riding a Cramer pump because cramer googled "small cap tankers" when he figured out what everyone else with a brain watching oil figured out two months earlier. DHT is also shit. Fucking clickbait mainstream tanker newfag idiot traps. Look at the fleets before you buy into a company and do some research on past contango - protip, this has happened before, it just wasn't as severe, and small retail money will do better in smaller cap companies with VLCCs.

>>18734606
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
Look at the last trading day for the next futures contract rollover. You will see the most action right before this date. Everything else is just noise. Re the contract dates: You can (a) estimate based on shore storage, or (b) literally just call up the fucking company. Depending on who you're calling, you can get a lot of info because they're actively looking for new contracts.

>>18734654
No. You will get burned once the gap between near term and long term futures narrows. OIL DOES NOT NEED TO RECOVER FOR TANKERS TO FAIL. Rents are tied directly to the amplitude of contango. If you buy when contango is insane, like May futures are likely to be, you can burned if it reduces to just ridiculous.