/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>24984165
I'm too retarded to understand what you're talking about but I'm put some stuff into a calculator and it always comes out saying that higher-likelihood bets are more profitable assuming a given relative edge

where x is probability, red is fraction of bankroll to wager, green is returns on win assuming an edge of 15%, blue is average profits, orange is profits after flat fee per bet (riskier bets = smaller wagers = more losses to fees)
probably wrong though

But it's all modified by confidence anyway. The more confident you are that you have a specific edge, the closer you can get to betting the optimal amount.

>>24984165
I'm too retarded to understand what you're talking about but I'm put some stuff into a calculator and it always comes out saying that higher-likelihood bets are more profitable assuming a given relative edge

where x is probability, red is fraction of bankroll to wager, green is returns on win assuming an edge of 15%, blue is average profits, orange is profits after flat fee per bet (riskier bets = smaller wagers = more losses to fees)
probably wrong though

But it's all modified by confidence anyway. The more confident you are that you have a specific edge, the closer you can get to betting the optimal amount.