/biz/ - Business & Finance

Some speculation on trading the reversal:
Flu virus has similar R-nought value relative to nCoV-2019, although slightly lower.
Flu has shorter incubation period: a few days, where nCoV can be as high as 10 to 14 days.
Parabolic top on the actual infection numbers will peak very sharply compared to flu, because of quarantine measures and public fear.
Based on reports, index case (first one) occured December 1.
January 23, CCCP began measure to quarantine major cities in Wuhan province.
From people I know that do business there and what others say on the internet, the result of that government declaration resulted in tens of millions of people fleeing to other provinces.
The diaspora of potential nCoV carriers from Wuhan occured on Jan 24, so the peak rate of infection (not peak infection magnitude) should occur sometime between tomorrow and February 2.
Based on reported index case, with very rough comparison viral like spreads, peak magnitude of infection should occur 12-16 weeks after index case. i.e. some day between last week of february and last week of march.


Everyone on the stock market right now is trying to time 'peak fear', since it will likely correlate with the greatest value reaped from purchasing equity. Peak infection may not happen for another 4 to 8 weeks, but I think the best buying opportunity is late this week or next Monday.