/biz/ - Business & Finance

If you look at Nasdaq's price, you're able to find similar patterns. Internet began in 1990 but the Internet bubble really started in 1995. Similarly, $BTC was created in 2009 but price acceleration occurred in 2016.

At the end of the Awareness Phase, both had events that will allow global adoption : Google and WiFi for the Internet, LightningNetwork for Bitcoin. These events may be considered as the catalysts pushing Nasdaq & $BTC into Mania Phase.

They both ended the Awareness Phase with the classic sell off before the Mania Phase, holding the logarithmic support. Finally, Nasdaq almost x4 in only 1yr 1/2. Bitcoin seems to go twice as fast as the Dotcom Bubble so we can expect the Mania Phase to take place in 2018.

The Dotcom bubble popped in March 2000 reaching 6.7 trillion $, around 11 times the US monetary in that time ($ 600Bn). If we were to follow Internet bubble's path, we could reach between $ 400k and $ 2.5Mn depending on the potential market cap we will be facing.

This scenario will be valid if we don't face a bull trap around $12k. Or we complete a full market cycle (78.6%/88.6% retracement) or we follow the S-curve adoption model which could bring us to these targets. These figures seem completely unreachable, but so were they in 1998.