/biz/ - Business & Finance

OK, boys, what are we thinking tomorrow: red or green?

>>56676389
Yeah, that's gonna sting like 4% in the morning. Best I can say is don't size a position at 25% (and hold it over earnings) unless you've got a damn good handle on it. Throwing a couple protective puts on your big dogs when those sort of events come up can also help.

As copium/a bonus learning experience, I recommend reading their earnings releases (EarningsWhisper is actually good at this) and listening to the calls/webcasts (usually linked on their investor relations page). Could be in a day or two, analysts realize things aren't actually that bad and the stocks end up +10% instead.

>>56602014
>>56601945
>Ok if I read the terms right for every Spirit share I own Jetblue will fork out 33.5 for each one once the ink is put to paper. Right now sprint is going for 10.27 a share. So assuming I bagged 1360 shares tomorrow I'd stand to get $45,560 once the ink was dry.
I like you, Coke Boomer. Not enough that you can fuck my sister, only I can do that, but enough to help you out here.

While @David_Slotnick has been reporting from the courtroom and the DoJ look like retards, this kind of stuff is never a sure thing. Maybe the judge doesn't rule in favor, maybe the ruling is delayed beyond the end of the year, maybe it gets appealed, maybe JBLU Jews the price down.

In those kind of conditions, you get absolutely fucked. Like 50% drawdown fucked, because Spirit is fundamentally a shit airline on a direct flight to Bankruptcytown (Population: Way Too Many Airlines to Count). Just be aware of that before going all in.

OK, gentlemen. Coal.

What do we know about it? What do we own? What do we want to own?

>Last few bears/people who know what shorting is pile into shorts tomorrow
>Normies hear about giga gains for NVDA
>Order ACH transfers to brokerages
>MMs hedging calls into Friday keep buying
>Friday all May options expire and MMs dump their call hedging shares AH
>Normie ACHs clear Monday, they panic buy then panic sell

We hit 420 Friday then 220 Tuesday.

>>54940282
So how does the BLS determine inflation? By assembling a basket of goods, giving them weights roughly proportionate to how much we spend on each, then tracking their prices. Yeah?

How do you determine those proportionate weights? Like how much we spend on sofas vs. airfare. Especially if they change over the years. For example buying more sofas and fewer plane tickets during the pandemic.

The old BLS method averaged consumer spending from the last two years. They updated it to only weight based on the previous year.

So instead of including a light-on-services, heavy-on-goods pandemic-era 2021 and averaging that with the more normal 2022 spending, they're just using 2022 spending to weight 2023's CPI components.

Ironically this increased the weighting of services, which are currently more inflationary than goods, so the change bumped headline CPI up a little.

OK, who has recovered from that dip and who hasn't?

OK, but seriously, what are you buying tomorrow?

We're 2 weeks into the year. SPY is up 4.20%.

You *are* doing better than that, right?

>>51455296
We're at 6% mortgage rates. If you hike so they become, say, 10%, what do you think happens to housing prices?

Every home owner battens down the hatches, every construction company freezes their shit, everyone from sawmills to copper miners get their shit pushed in.

Then you need to look at bond investors, who will drag the entire yield curve up to chase the gigahike. And now the treasury is auctioning 10 years at 6%, 7%, 8%.

Now if you're a divvy boomer do you buy some risky dogshit like T or INTC? At current prices? Hell no, you earn twice as much in the bond market so you bail on those stocks in favor of those treasuries.

Congratulations, now everyone sees their home prices crater, their stock portfolios die as P/Es adjust, their retirement savings evaporate as the nominal value of their 3% bonds plunges another 20%, and there are no more dollars to employ anyone in nonessential industries - i.e. anyone other than farmers and rig pigs.

>>50407732
First make a few assumptions:
>1. Containment will fail (Gays suddenly having safe sex? Or responsibly taking a 2 dose vaccine that's <80% effective, with only 2.5m doses available by EOY? Lol.)
>2. Every hospital will have to be stocked, regardless of actual case numbers (with a 2 week doubling time + S-curve behavior, probably high 6 digits, low 7 digits by EOY).
>3. No crazy mutations mean it stays in the first world gay male population of, say 1b*50%*3.5% = 17.5m.
>4. Current 2m dose stockpile, even if deployed, will be replenished because bioterrorism.
>5. Hospitals will stock assuming 20% hospitalization, bulk discounts driving cost down to $500/course.

17.5m * 0.2 * $500 = $1.75b in revenue. SIGA's current market cap is $1.08b.

I know #3 can be argued (DNA virus vs. zomg 50 mutations) and is on the conservative side; certainly we're 5x or 10x if reinfection is possible or it spreads beyond pozzed holes. #5 is also a pretty wild ass guess on my part, and I don't know if SIGA will actually be able to ramp up production to capture those dollars.

>>18291484
Working is you delivering value to society. Spending the cash you earned is redeeming that value, asking for it back.

If you have debt, someone gave you value and it should be a top priority to return their favor. Beyond making the debt payments you agreed to, your next job is amassing savings so you are not a burden on others when, say, a global pandemic hits.

Only once those accounts are settled should you indulge in shit like vidya or getting hammered at bars.

Are Mongol hordes a good investment?

Part of it's exhaustion on the part of sellers and part of it's bearphoria. I mean, fuck's sake, just count how many WSB refugees are here saying they want someone to "redpill them on options". You think that's not the sign of, like, a reverse market top?

The reality is that Iceland's testing shows 50% asymptomatic (which matches with that one town in Italy), so the worst case hospitalization rate is 10%. That's without accounting for the dozens of possible treatments or mask/ventilator supply chain improvements. Or the fact that the dead are largely old, comorbid healthcare/money sinks.

Outside of the direct effects of the virus, Q2 GDP will take a ~15% hit with all the quarantines but the market's already down 30%. Panic buying's been almost totally absorbed by the consumer staples sector, which means no starvation and anarchy. Meanwhile poorfags are going to get unemployment checks and plenty of key employees are able to work from home.

Bear market rally's not out of the question but recovery from here's likely between an L and a V. We won't reach previous highs for a while because Trump's just lost re-election, but there aren't any big bearish catalysts that'd surprise the markets.

Look, bottom line, are there any betting sites for WWIII breaking out?

Basically where >>16731248 can wager some goybucks against >>16731262.

The left controls the two most powerful branches of government: the press and education.

They're in a strong symbiosis so you won't have the weaker branches like the legislative or executive put any reasonable brakes on things (like limiting loans to STEM degrees, tying interest rates and loan amounts to future earnings, etc).

Civil rights era laws mean that the politely-accepted competence signalling of a degree won't go away. Griggs v. Duke Power is never getting overturned.

That means while only 30% of the population has gone through the wringer to get a bachelors, standards will drop until that triples (and 30% end up having to get master's degrees).

This deadlock will persist much like social security and medicare/health expenditures, until the federal government collapses in a general default scenario.

>>10698472
Then think things like

Job Security: Obfuscate your codebase so badly no one can ever take over maintaining it.

I'll Get Around To It: Delay a user-reported bug's one liner fix for over three months.

Code's Compiling: Route around your workplace's internet filter and shitpost on /biz/ for an entire day.

You Know We Can See What You Do, Right?: Blackmail someone based on their at-work internet traffic.

You can probably come up with way better ones.

>>10532648
You'd think so but good luck picking out the handful of small rail companies that today form Union Pacific. Or choosing a bank for your savings account that won't go under pre-FDIC. Or even trying to accumulate enough surplus capital wageslaving when food + rent is 95% of your income.

Otherwise, you need to personally know how to innovate from 1820's tech. You have steam engines and shitty railroads. How do you improve them? Their metallurgy? Do you know any geological tips or then-untapped metal deposits (other than, "there's gold in thee unoccupied Mexican territory of California")? How would you find out which plots to buy in Titusville?

Or if you don't have that level of practicality, can you even find the major universities that have people willing to listen to your crazy physics ideas about aether not being real or that microscopic organisms are what's killing half of hospital patients? Even if you get things kickstarted with half-remembered high school biology and chemistry, there's still decades of grunt work to grind things out. Oh and you're still a poorfag because the Nobel prize is 75 years away.

Maybe invent dynamite?

>>9535206
>>9535267
while what you're saying is true, i'm still very suspicious of chinese crypto. they're way too good at using marketing tactics to pump their prices.

1) Who shorted the market?

2) Why did the government allow this to happen?

Thanks for tweezer bottom

See you on the moon bottom shorters

Okay guys, I know Fiverr it's okay, but I'd like to expand my gigs on other platforms that allow for bigger projects. I've looked into Freelancer, but a lot of former user say that they act shady and can screw you out of your jewgolds, so that's a no-no. Guru seems shady as well.
Can you tell me your impressions on elance and upwork (the new odesk)? It seems like these two are a bit cleaner and less scummy.
Also, do you use similar platforms? If yes, how are you liking them?

Which 10-K are you currently reading?

Haven't visited here since the first week. I need to know what we call each other now. /biz/antines or /biz/onauts?