/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>10639802
lol i'm just having some fun. i own stock too, of course (and REITs), though i'm not putting new money into it.

>btw whats your take on shorter term treasury yield spikes in the near term? wouldnt mind picking up some more bonds for longterm holding at a higher yield. i agree that stocks are beyond fucked rn

i was expecting more interest rate hikes than we've had, and if i had to put a bet on it, i would take the "under" on whatever line the market expects on yield for bills and notes. people are clearly trigger happy about a rush to safety. trump is too unpredictable for traders and everyone's waiting for the cookie to crumble on trade war shit. the irony of the US's international position is that when we fuck up people's shit they respond by buying our debt and currency. it's an amazing luxury, and i don't think people fully appreciate what it means to have the world swing by your nuts the way it does right now.

anyway, i'm not enthused about 30-year yields at 3.1%~. i think the short-term debt is the place to be, because i think the likelihood of a recession will crush govt debt yields for anything 5 years or shorter, and i think the economy's difficulties will put a ceiling on rate hikes. i think the US has a debt and demographic problem that will raise long-term yields. we had a long summer of growth and i think it's almost over. as you said, stocks are fucked. total market cap to gdp is something like 130%. employment's full. uncage ze bear. btw, i'd avoid corporate debt at all costs right now. there's a fuckton of it, the economy's due for correction, you figure it out. corporate junk funds at 5.5% is an absolute sucker's yield, someone is going to get slaughtered.