/biz/ - Business & Finance

AquaBounty estimates production of 50,000 metric tons of salmon by 2028. What might this translate to in terms of sales revenue? I'm no expert in salmon, so I'll just do a back of the envelope calculation off from AquaBounty's investor presentation. The global salmon market is 2.4 million metric tons, valued at $16.7 billion dollars, and, as we all know, demand for salmon will only continue to grow over the coming years.

2023 - 14,000 mt
$97.4 million ~= 14,000 m.t. / 2,400,000 m.t. * $16.7 billion

2028 - 50,000 mt
$348 million ~= 50000 m.t. / 2,400,000 m.t. * $16.7 billion

What might this translate to in terms of profit? AquaBounty's presentation gives an estimate of 29% EBITDA margin. If we naively multiply that against the figures above, that makes the stock price look good to me. Assuming a market cap of $700 million (significantly rounding up the actual current market cap), that means the current price could be roughly 25 times earnings from the 2023 harvest and just 2 times earnings from the 2028 harvest.