/biz/ - Business & Finance

>Reversion to the mean: profits that are double the historical average as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are highly likely not to be a sustainable New Normal. The far more likely track is a reversion to the historical average, which is about 50% below corporate profits' current 12% of GDP.
>The Boost phase of Globalization has ended. The era of hyper-globalization is clearly visible on the charts of corporate profits and corporate profits as a percentage of GDP
>Quality and durability have been gutted and there's no more profit to pluck from buying lower-quality components and inputs, as the cheapest, lowest-quality components and inputs have already been standardized.
>Hyper-financialization has entered the decay-collapse phase. Hyper-financialization drove corporate profits in two ways: A. As borrowing costs dropped to unprecedented lows, corporations could borrow vast sums at near-zero rates to scoop up other companies with positive cash flow, gut the quality and staff and scoop up the resulting cost reductions as profits. B. Consumers could borrow vast sums at low rates to buy products that they would not have been able to afford at historically average interest rates.
>The asymmetric distribution of the economy's output favoring corporations at the expense of labor is finally shifting. After 45 years of capital skimming $50 trillion from labor, rising rates of disability, unfavorable demographics, systemic healthcare inflation and social dynamics are pushing labor costs higher.
>Debt saturation. Corporate profits soared from $800 billion annually to $3.5 trillion in 2022 on the tailwinds of public and private debt skyrocketing from $30 trillion in 2000 to $95 trillion today. We've entered an era of debt saturation: households, government and enterprises can no longer afford to take on more debt without triggering unintended consequences or slashing discretionary spending to service the higher costs of new and existing debts.

you probably can't though

when is the stock market going to crash and burn? It's been on a ten year bullrun and I want to buy some cheap dividend paying stocks.

Lets face it guys, we are less than a year away from the stock markets going to the shitter. What do you guys think is going to start the collapse, when it is gonna happen and how are you managing your portfolios to prepare for it and survive?