/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>51648857
The use of nukes by Russia, the 2008 crash, or even Covid - none of these things were Black Swans. People knew about the 2008 crash in advance and tried to warn others. People knew about the possibility for an epidemic and how bad it would be given we travel across the world all the time now (2003 and SARS was a precursor and a clear sign we're on the edge of disaster without having a plan in place -- many countries stocked PPE during SARS but after that they didn't keep supplies up because its not politically useful to do that)

Here is the definition from the guy that coined the term:
>Taleb describes a black swan as an event that: Is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown. Has a catastrophic impact when it does occur. Is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable.

Aliens dropping down and skullfucking our way of life? Black Swan. Earthquake leveling NYC? Black Swan, etc.