/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>58415593
(Answer post 2 of 3)
Given the predetermined timing of each halving, it may at first seem plausible for market participants to anticipate the event and price it in before it happens. Individuals can do this so far as their own subjective appraisal is concerned, but the market pricing something is a different matter entirely. Individual bobo posters of biz will tell you that bitcoin is always overpriced wherever the market happens to be in the present moment, and we always have further to fall. So it is quite comical they will also say that the halving is priced in already. Put differently, a bobo is someone who thinks the bitcoin market can only be inefficient in one direction in the sense that their personal reasons for bearishness are never yet "priced in". Yet anything which they will admit is a bullish factor, they will say is already fully priced in the moment it enters the consciousness of a small amount of the public. In contrast true mumus are consistent in that they always maintain that the market is inefficient, because they think longer term across multiple future halving epochs to begin with.

As you can see from these graphs covering most of bitcoin’s life span, it has never worked this way in the past when we have switched into a new epoch. It is clear that prior Bitcoin halvings have not been adequately priced in, and that BTC’s price seems to rise dramatically after each halving. There is no reason to assume it will be any different this time.

>>58408097
Cycles don't have to be the same each time, and the influencers have no real means of knowing in advance what the price will do and when perhaps outside of vague "up" or "down" forecasts. Saying this isn't quite the same as saying "cycles are bullshit".

>>58404741
It is no different than prior halvings, thus it is quite baseless to try to make it into a fud event. It does not matter if some miners go out of business.

>>58392945
Gold's pumps are trivial to what BTC does, I would die of boredom if I were in gold so it always amuses me when goldfags assume I have any reason to be envious of them just because gold is relatively more stable in inching up. Stay in your containment thread, what is going on with gold is never newsworthy. I honestly just check the price of gold and thought it would be higher than that by now. You are on the sidelines of the real show.

kek. some jeets with ai images are pretending they invented digital gold in 2024

I think H4 to the next green ATH, will be a bigger % change than 19,800 to 69,000 was.