/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>23947372
you're not gonna last

>>19137345
Not subscribing to read it all, but again, pick a narrative. People either have to argue for demand destruction, or for demand. For demand, you run into issues with storage as refineries are full and Cushing WOULD be full if they accepted the Saudi oil tanker deliveries already (which they are first in queue btw compared to anyone buying oil on the market, meaning storage is full right now even if demand outstrips supply and it is because of unaccepted oil deliveries....and it would be a very bad surprise for anyone buying oil on the market to find that out. If oil demand is high though...what oil is used first you think, newly bought, or stored up? Stored up. And if storage is full....the oil is worthless despite high demand. Furthermore in the future this causes backwardation which increases production as everything starts up to full making a ton of money which leads to oversupply again and a second contango, high volatility in supply and demand. If demand stays low on the other hand...well, price needs to go lower regardless but we might not have backwardation into continuing volatility. Oil would be stable in its badness rather than negative 100 one week and over 100 another.

Also in regards to your other comments, tankers are particularly attractive if you are a value investor. It isn't that they will "grow" (though they will in the sense of huge profits which some companies, such as DHT, will return 60%+ of to shareholders as policy), but the fact they are undervalued. Look at STNG. STNG is trading below 17, yet if it dissolved and sold all its assets shareholders would be entitled to over 32 dollars per share. A company making over 800% profits over the norm, rapidly deleveraging estimated 40% in Q2, and half the value of if it literally disappeared? Sign me up, market sentiment be damned. Price will correct eventually, will hold until it does for easy x2+.

>>18870152
Well, in all fairness, spook investors how much? I doubt oil will return to lows....and if they all do then I am going to be loading those cheapies like you wouldn't believe with my tanker money. But as I see it, it can perhaps, at worst during a new total downturn, go back to 4. An earnings and bloody red week slaughter will drop below 5, maybe 4.8 at worst possible imo. As I see it, too risky in the scenario that investors hold strong enough and price starts rising again to sell off and look for re-entry. I rather hold for now and if there is a huge sell off then simply buy more.

But you aren't wrong at all, I am just throwing stuff out of my ass like I normally do and like everyone does when making opinions about this market. We can both win so I just hope for that.