/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19609397
I mean look at the red line in pic related to get an idea of what a second wave even means. With more than half of the world's population under lockdown we've managed to get it close to linear (R0=1) instead of exponential growth (R0 > 1). If we kept the planet under lockdown, it would take a while but 1.2% of the world's population would still die from covid. We can only avoid that by getting the spread below linear (R0 < 1), which implies even stricter lockdowns.
Instead, we are now reopening, so R0 will go from 1 back to 2 or even 3, that is the currently linear growth will resume being exponential. Such an R0 implies pretty much the whole country will become infected, and with IFR = 1.2% that means almost 4 million dead Americans. That or it's back to lockdowns and linear growth, hoping that buys us enough time to find a vaccine. It's the only rational choice but the question is how long it will take and how many dead before Trump caves.