/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>12363052
Well I don't have the data to test the bond ETFs, but these generally perform well in recessions. I'm invested in TGLMX atm, which is a bond mutual fund and it got 12.5% average nominal returns from early 2009 to late 2012. I think you might actually get better returns with a govt bond etf or mutual fund than just holding the bonds themselves, which also has the added benefit of better liquidity.

Here's the graph for the 1 year holding period, it's much less impressive since it can sometimes take 1 year from the yield curve inversion to the start of a recession. The average real return for switching to bonds after an inversion here is 1.3%.