/biz/ - Business & Finance

reposting from last bread

>>12366488
The gains disappear if you decrease the hold time to 1 year, but they remain if you increase it to 4 years. Yes, 3-4 years is a sweetspot but this is dependent on the average length of the recession and the average time between the yield curve inversion and the start of the recession. You also don't have to follow this formula exactly, so long as you invest /during/ the recession you'll generally do well. The point of the strategy is to prevent the massive losses from a crash, so once a crash has happened pretty much any time you invest is good so long as it's before you get the previous highs.

>>12366507
How about we make a trade anon.
Here's the data I used which contains historical data for the S & P 500 going back to 1871, including price and dividend, as well as ten year t bond rates, corporate earnings, and CPI for that same time period.
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

In return I'd appreciate some links you think explain frequency domain well.

>>12366488
The gains disappear if you decrease the hold time to 1 year, but they remain if you increase it to 4 years. Yes, 3-4 years is a sweetspot but this is dependent on the average length of the recession and the average time between the yield curve inversion and the start of the recession. You also don't have to follow this formula exactly, so long as you invest /during/ the recession you'll generally do well. The point of the strategy is to prevent the massive losses from a crash, so once a crash has happened pretty much any time you invest is good so long as it's before you get the previous highs.