/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54099981
Anon, China (and Japan and Saudi and...) could give less of a fuck. But as those MMT dipshits relentlessly reminded us, we owe 90%+ of the debt to ourselves.

>>53988190
>pay it back
>Nope.

Quick refresher that we only "get" a few trillion from the Nips and Chinks if we default. Mostly a default just results in us printing a kazillion a year for Social Security instead of printing half a kazillion and cashing in half a kazillion in fake bonds.

>>53713513
Well, it helps to think of Social Security as one giant margin call.

>>51580738
At least in the US case about a third of the debt we can skip out on because of Fed jewry. But the other treasuries are placeholders for the dollars of other central banks, Boomer retirement savings, and placeholders for Social Security.

>>51550815
>are bonds completely pointless
They're propped up by a lot of inertia. Pension funds, Vanguard boomer types, algos that assume an inverse stock:bond correlation, all sorts who have never looked at this chart (and, understanding it, shit their pants).

>Like fuck if the yield hits 10% like it did in the 80s I'd hit it
You probably would not. Because buying a treasury at that point is like buying an Argentinian bond today. Ask yourself why you're not buying Argentinian bonds today.

>>51522138
Yes, but the question is whether that undermining of Powell's tightening can be sustained for 2, 4, 10 years.

We're already at the "Fed monetizing all new debt" stage. Next comes declining global demand for dollars, eating through the Boomer savings glut (CPI > FFR, 401(k)s now need X% in treasuries in order to qualify for favorable tax treatment, etc.), and cutting off alternatives (PoW crypto illegal, SEC burdens for PoS coins, capital controls, etc.). Only then does austerity hit.

>>51522157
Cull 100 million spare men in a war or two, annex some melting Siberian permafrost, max out on nuke reactors, I'd say they're not guaranteed fucked but definitely unlikely to be a world power.

But remember that the Parthians never conquered Rome. They didn't need to.

>>51416558
>yup, exactly. another hike and everyone defaults. which brings the question, who do we own money to? I mean I know the answer but its funny to think about it every time.
The only good news as far as "everyone defaults" is that loans take time to roll over and refinance, even the national debt.

>>51323381
That's good but only a part of the picture. China may or may not keep their holdings as leverage, Japan may be forced to dump theirs to defend the Yen, but JPowell's rape hikes and QT are targeted right at the giant green block at the bottom.

At the current, full bore, "$60b in treasuries a month" pace it'd take over 16 months to just barely move 1t off those books. 16 months.