/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57659499
bearish
here's my rundown

>yield curve un-inverting after the longest inversion ever
>unemployment rising above the 2-yr moving avg after reaching a near all-time low
both are very accurate near-term leading indicators of a recession

>fed's own odds of recession peak at 71% in may
Since 1970, if this went over 33%, they were correct

in terms of their post-WWII trends:
>real S&P prices: +1.5std dev (top 7% all time)
>real S&P/GDP ratio: +1.6std dev (top 6%)
>real S&P P/E ratio: +1.5std dev (top 7%)
>real S&P vs. interest rates: +0.9std dev (top 19%)
last time these all peaked simultaneously was 00-01. If you had invested then, it would've taken 15 years just to break even
by any metric US equities are overvalued

real estate is also way above trend relative to interest rates (well past 08 in terms of severity)

commodities and emerging markets stand a chance to do better in the coming years vs. US stocks (note better does imply good, mind you)

I want a crash because I have savings but a 70's style decade of stagflation (crab) seems likely as well

>>57659639
based & fuck ZIRP

>>57659751
everyone's a genius in a bull market