/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>24973580
KEK
holy fuck dude - I'm done
You argued that X provided guidance showing that the steel demand was poor, and that's why they were going to lose money
I provided 3 articles covering their guidance where they explicitly said that demand was great on all fronts, and that they expect to turn profitable as they'll be able to take advantage of the high price of steel in future quarters
>1) lower demand (although they say it's improving)
lol wtf? How do you have this cognitive dissonance? How can you argue that "X guidance said demand is shit" when they are explicitly saying it's not, and you even admit they're saying demand is good
>2) any advantage in high steel prices will be wiped out as more supply becomes available in 2021
Iron is priced out higher for the rest of the year. The supply will not become "more available" until November/December of 2021
>they even downgrade X's price to around 10 dollars. how are you looking at this and saying, unironically, that steel is a safe bet?
How do you not understand that X (American Steel) can be a shit company / was not positioned correctly to make bank off of this iron/steel/commodity cycle? Just because X is shit doesn't mean the whole industry is - the infrastructure spending to get out of this economic crisis hasn't even begun

I'm still waiting for you to provide proof for your claims. You keep saying "X said demand in their guidance demand for steel is bad!!"
SHOW ME. I have shown you.

>>24971749
>VALE first under based stocks
>B A S E D
>A
>S
>E
>D
You are correct sir!
Buy the VALE dip / buy your LEAPs on VALE tomorrow if there is a dip (a great buying opportunity if there is a dip) A landslide on the slope of a DEACTIVATED pit during maintenance will not impact the demand or the supply of iron
41 people die everyday in mining worldwide
Iron to stay high for months and months!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9062419/Chinas-trade-war-helping-Australia-iron-ore-prices-expected-stay-higher-longer.html
China Australia conflict is not going to magically get better = China buys more Brazilian ore
Pastebin: https://pastebin.com/7RCHT6tZ

>>24964882
I wouldn't be - the price of iron is going higher, for more months out
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9062419/Chinas-trade-war-helping-Australia-iron-ore-prices-expected-stay-higher-longer.html
Australians are going to keep iron price high
The accident was on the slope of one of their deactivated mines - it's not going to impact production whatsoever
https://g1.globo.com/mg/minas-gerais/noticia/2020/12/18/talude-cai-sobre-maquina-que-operava-perto-da-barragem-da-vale-que-se-rompeu-em-brumadinho.ghtml
Translated to English:
"In a note, Vale confirmed that there was a landslide on a slope in the mine's deactivated pit."

It's bad press, but shit happens. 15,000+ people die a year in mining - as long as their production is not impacted it'll be fine
There may be a dip pre-market, but I do not think it will last
1 death is not worth billions of dollars in market cap
Imo Friday there was so little news out about the accident, only Brazilian articles several paragraphs long - so investors read the headline "Landslide at Brumadinho" and were like OMG it's another dam disaster all over again SELL SELL SELL!! but then everyone realized "Oh wait, it was one guy in a bulldozer doing maintenance on the slope of one of their deactivated pits.."

VALE landslide news:
https://g1.globo.com/mg/minas-gerais/noticia/2020/12/18/talude-cai-sobre-maquina-que-operava-perto-da-barragem-da-vale-que-se-rompeu-em-brumadinho.ghtml
Translated to English:
In a note, Vale confirmed that there was a landslide on a slope in the mine's deactivated pit."
>Slope
>deactivated pit
If VALE dips on Monday, due to a landslide on the slope of a deactivated mine, BUY THE DIP.
Buy calls, buy shares. This event does not change the demand for iron ore, nor does it affect the supply - it is just bad press
Iron prices are staying higher for months to come
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9062419/Chinas-trade-war-helping-Australia-iron-ore-prices-expected-stay-higher-longer.html
>Extraordinary twist as China's trade war with Australia backfires with our biggest money-spinning export iron ore now set to stay at record levels for longer and earn the nation BILLIONS in extra revenue
There's a reason why ((IRON)) contracts moved up so much for months out on Friday - it was originally expected that the price of iron would fall in early 2021 - NOT anymore!

>>24945364
if it dips Monday pre-market, BUY.
Iron is now being priced at these ATH prices for months out now, with no signs of it changing (Australians are saying it's going to stay high - Aussies dictate the price of iron as the largest exporters)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9062419/Chinas-trade-war-helping-Australia-iron-ore-prices-expected-stay-higher-longer.html
The thing about this accident is that it happened near the Brumadinho mining site. If it had happened anywhere else, it wouldn't even be on our radar / wouldn't have been reported on. It's just because people in Brazil are still upset over the dam disaster, and to have someone die again there = sensational stories about how VALE is the bad guy
15,000+ people die a year globally in the mining industry - sure it's a tragedy the guy died - but is one guy dying worth billions of dollars in market cap? Hell no
None of us are worth that much
I'm not sure what to think - the news coming out / iron prices going up for months out is EXTREMELY bullish for VALE, they will be able to have the best profits on the record high iron prices until late next year, possibly even longer
However.. in the short-term.. market makers might dump it, even if it's just pre-market on Monday

I plan on holding through the volatility - at the end of the day, people die working in mines. It's a dangerous business. Shit happens

>>24941038
>>24941104
Yes of course VALE! IRON SUPERCYCLE
If VALE dips this coming week because of this mining accident - BUY THE DIP. Mining accidents happen everyday - 15,000+ people die a year in the mining industry
https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/planet-earth/mining/health-effects-of-mining/story
Deaths come with the business - do not be afraid of 1 person dying causing the stock to crash
It does not change the fundamentals - IRON is record high, and will stay high for months
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9062419/Chinas-trade-war-helping-Australia-iron-ore-prices-expected-stay-higher-longer.html
VALE pastebin: https://pastebin.com/7RCHT6tZ

VALE bros - check out how the price of iron acted today - the current price may not have moved much, HOWEVER, the price of iron moved up huge for contracts months and months out.
Iron buyers expected the price of iron to peak and start to fall - not anymore after the news today! The price will be high for a LONG time - FANTASTIC for VALE!!

12/18/20 more news came out about ((IRON)) in case you missed it last night:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9062419/Chinas-trade-war-helping-Australia-iron-ore-prices-expected-stay-higher-longer.html
(sorry that it's dailymail)
>Extraordinary twist as China's trade war with Australia backfires with our biggest money-spinning export iron ore now set to stay at record levels for longer and earn the nation BILLIONS in extra revenue
SO
Chinese steel mills tried to complain today to Australian iron miners that the price of iron was too high. Australian miners were basically just like "oh man, that sucks" while rubbing their nipples
https://youtu.be/Wtonb-WDQrk?t=30
Why this is important:
Aussie government LOVES the high price of iron, because it's making the China trade war have zero net impact on the Australian economy - the gains that they have received from the higher price of iron are greater than the losses from coal / wine / barley! As such, Australian government basically said "iron prices are going to stay high for months, suck my dick"

This is very bullish for VALE for the price of iron to be kept up for months to come, and also very bullish for there to be even more conflict between Australia and China (more conflict = more marketshare acquired by VALE) Australia will not seek to end their conflict with China when they are making billions on IRON sales
Pastebin: https://pastebin.com/7RCHT6tZ