/biz/ - Business & Finance

Clearance rates have a direct correlation with price change, as clearance rates drop so does prices: Sydney https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1061916517032292352 and Melbourne https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1061916812936245251

Price falls in Sydney and Melbourne faster than during the great recession or any other event in at least 30 years: Sydney https://twitter.com/DocNicolaPowell/status/1055939261554319360 and Melbourne https://twitter.com/DocNicolaPowell/status/1055950182574055426

Melbourne down 4% in a quarter: https://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-house-prices-drop-4-per-cent-in-three-months-776913/

Clearance rates worst in a generation: https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1053562178626678784?s=20

Only in 3 other extreme events have clearance rates been in the 30s in Sydney: https://twitter.com/LouiChristopher/status/1053585757351231488 (they'll be revised down to ~38% once the full results come in) - Oct/Nov 2008 (GFC), May 2004 (NSW vendor stamp duty) and July 1989 when the cash rate hit 17%. Sydney buyers are responding with the same recluctance to buy as during the worst recession in our generation, the highest new purchase tax in our generation, and the highest interest rates in the boomers generation.

Not surprisingly buyer sentiment is lower than during the GFC: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/10/house-prices-set-to-continue-to-fall-for-another-two-years-survey-says

>After moderating in late October and early November, Australia’s housing market downturn accelerated last week, coinciding with a seasonal increase in supply ahead of the Christmas and New Year period.

>Prices fell by 0.5% in Sydney, an unusually large fall compared to those seen this year. Median values also fell in all other mainland state capital city markets except for Adelaide last week.
>Sydney has now re-overtaken Melbourne as the market with the largest price declines this year.
>Property listings have increased in all capital cities over the past year except for Darwin, hinting that supply may weigh on values in these markets should demand fail to improve.

JUST

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-property-market-downturn-sydney-melbourne-home-prices-2018-11

Clearance rates have a direct correlation with price change, as clearance rates drop so does prices: Sydney https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1061916517032292352 and Melbourne https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1061916812936245251

Price falls in Sydney and Melbourne faster than during the great recession or any other event in at least 30 years: Sydney https://twitter.com/DocNicolaPowell/status/1055939261554319360 and Melbourne https://twitter.com/DocNicolaPowell/status/1055950182574055426

Melbourne down 4% in a quarter: https://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-house-prices-drop-4-per-cent-in-three-months-776913/

Clearance rates worst in a generation: https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1053562178626678784?s=20

Only in 3 other extreme events have clearance rates been in the 30s in Sydney: https://twitter.com/LouiChristopher/status/1053585757351231488 (they'll be revised down to ~38% once the full results come in) - Oct/Nov 2008 (GFC), May 2004 (NSW vendor stamp duty) and July 1989 when the cash rate hit 17%. Sydney buyers are responding with the same recluctance to buy as during the worst recession in our generation, the highest new purchase tax in our generation, and the highest interest rates in the boomers generation.

Not surprisingly buyer sentiment is lower than during the GFC: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/10/house-prices-set-to-continue-to-fall-for-another-two-years-survey-says

42% of NSW mortgage owners will be in negative equity once prices fall by 20%, which is only 1-2 years away after falling 7% this year: https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/h/1/6/v/f/7/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1539928703734.png

>Post data and theory ITT

Yesterdays Auction clearance rates in the leading cities by volume and value are the lowest in 30 years: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DroBTWeUwAAw-D_.jpg

Price falls in Sydney and Melbourne faster than during the great recession or any other event in at least 30 years: Sydney https://twitter.com/DocNicolaPowell/status/1055939261554319360 and Melbourne https://twitter.com/DocNicolaPowell/status/1055950182574055426

Melbourne down 4% in a quarter: https://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-house-prices-drop-4-per-cent-in-three-months-776913/

Clearance rates worst in a generation: https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1053562178626678784?s=20

Only in 3 other extreme events have clearance rates been in the 30s in Sydney: https://twitter.com/LouiChristopher/status/1053585757351231488 (they'll be revised down to ~38% once the full results come in) - Oct/Nov 2008 (GFC), May 2004 (NSW vendor stamp duty) and July 1989 when the cash rate hit 17%. Sydney buyers are responding with the same recluctance to buy as during the worst recession in our generation, the highest new purchase tax in our generation, and the highest interest rates in the boomers generation.

Clearance rates have a direct correlation with price change, as clearance rates drop so does prices. This Sydney chart needs updating https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2017/11/oliver-1.jpg but this Melbourne chart is upto date https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1053563743374794752

All these new buyers on IO only loans will rollover causing spending to reduce in the economy https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-ag-2018-04-24-graph4.gif and investors being forced to sell as they cant afford the now 40% increase in repayments. They are new buyers and won't have made a profit, thousands of sellers making a loss, completely eroding whatevers left of positive sentiment.

Price falls in Sydney and Melbourne faster than during the great recession or any other event in at least 30 years: Sydney https://twitter.com/DocNicolaPowell/status/1055939261554319360 and Melbourne https://twitter.com/DocNicolaPowell/status/1055950182574055426

Melbourne down 4% in a quarter: https://www.domain.com.au/news/melbourne-house-prices-drop-4-per-cent-in-three-months-776913/

Clearance rates worst in a generation: https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1053562178626678784?s=20

Only in 3 other extreme events have clearance rates been in the 30s in Sydney: https://twitter.com/LouiChristopher/status/1053585757351231488 (they'll be revised down to ~38% once the full results come in) - Oct/Nov 2008 (GFC), May 2004 (NSW vendor stamp duty) and July 1989 when the cash rate hit 17%. Sydney buyers are responding with the same recluctance to buy as during the worst recession in our generation, the highest new purchase tax in our generation, and the highest interest rates in the boomers generation.

Clearance rates have a direct correlation with price change, as clearance rates drop so does prices. This Sydney chart needs updating https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2017/11/oliver-1.jpg but this Melbourne chart is upto date https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP/status/1053563743374794752

All these new buyers on IO only loans will rollover causing spending to reduce in the economy https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-ag-2018-04-24-graph4.gif and investors being forced to sell as they cant afford the now 40% increase in repayments. They are new buyers and won't have made a profit, thousands of sellers making a loss, completely eroding whatevers left of positive sentiment.