/biz/ - Business & Finance

people used to think 10k was fantastic dream are-you-serious-suggesting-that's-possible moon land too

>>15117732
https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

>"The model predicts a bitcoin market value of $1trn after next halving in May 2020, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000."

That wouldn't be the point of the peak though. My guess 120k.

>>15105956
Whole article explaining/proving why bitcoin's value is most directly driven by its scarcity:

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

>>15104471
Guy who make this also wrote a great article back in March titled "Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity" that is worth reading in my opinion.

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

*continuing the article blurb in the attached pic:
>What is very interesting is that gold and silver, which are totally different markets, are in line with the bitcoin model values for SF (stock to flow ratio). This gives extra confidence in the model. Note that at the peak of the bull market in Dec 2017 bitcoin SF was 22 and bitcoin market value was $230bn, very close to silver.
Because halvings have such a big impact on SF, I put months until the next halving as a color overlay in the chart. Dark blue is the halving month, and red is just after the halving. Next halving is May 2020. Current SF of 25 will double to 50, very close to gold (SF 62).
The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1trn, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000. That is quite spectacular. I guess time will tell and we will probably know one or two years after the halving, in 2020 or 2021. A great out of sample test of this hypothesis and model.

Interesting to remember that while bitcoin is called digital gold, it does not yet even have the stock-to-flow ratio that gold has which made it so valuable as a money in the past. It will be close to having as high a SF ratio after the halving.