/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>25432131
>market cap isn't fully realized

So what's a fair market cap for bitcoin and why? Also, what makes BTC a better inflation hedge than ETH / any other crypto? This rally is fueled on hype because of a couple of institutions buying BTC - if it were fear of inflation then other inflation hedging assets would at least be up an order of magnitude less but none of them are except other fringe crypto shit. You're right in that we've seen this happen with gold before - everybody gets spooked over inflation and rush into gold, then the price jumps and people fall for "Greater Fools" mentality believing they can make a ton of money if they just buy now while it's shooting up and profit off the momentum. Same mentality that led to excessive housing prices all across the US ca. 2000-2006. This kind of short-sighted thinking never ends well

>>25366388
Fair enough, I still have faith in Kindleberger though so I'm going to be getting in on puts. I have full confidence in saying that Tesla is not worth anywhere close to its current valuation, but I also know that shorting autism is one of the most dangerous moves an investor can make. I've heard stories of funds in 1999 that put on their dot com shorts just a few weeks earlier than others, and the ones that shorted earlier got completely wiped out while the ones who waited made fortunes. No sense trying to guess when sensibility will hit the market if there's nothing obvious to catalyze that realization

>>25366526
Issue with shorting NKLA before the warrant exercise date, which I tried, was that the short rebate was out of this fucking world - 700% annualized or something insane like that was what my broker quoted. Turned out that the warrant holders were hedging their holdings with shorts. Regret not having shorted after the warrant exercise date, it was still an obvious piece of shit at $50-60

The issue with SPCE is that a lot of people have been saying for years that tourism will be the first major sector in the space economy because, well, it's fucking space - who doesn't want to see Earth from orbit? Because of this conditioning, everyone now thinks SPCE is a golden goose and first mover in what they view as a major future market. But the bulls are completely missing how god awful expensive it is to develop and upkeep life support systems on any kind of space-rated vehicle, including suborbital. The margins are going to be razor thin even when they have ramped up to revenue, and it only takes a single accident for them to go completely bankrupt because nobody will ever fly with them again