/biz/ - Business & Finance

I warned you.

>>51467059
My top prediction here, simply following a macro thesis I've ben posting since ealry april and the channels that formed following the last year of price action. Fed is going to 4.5, S&P will lose 20% more at least, 40% is more likely through the coming year. My 300 puts expiring December are going to print like mad.

You were warned, if 384 breaks today its an elevator ride straight down. -3-5% on the S&P today in that case. Screenshot this fact.

Reminder that I warned you fucks.

I posted here yesterday ahead of the crash that is coming immediately in equities, ahead of the one currently happening to BTC, I have already given the final warning, I shall repeat myself once, we are past the top of this bear market rally, we are diving to 360 on the SPY by the end of October, mark my words.

The rally is over, we are decending back into the bear channel, SPY as example: 377 by the 31st, the financial crisis-'19 support line (brown here) that has held twice will fail the third and we fall through 350 by the 16th of September, to test 330's. From there, we either bounce back up from 320 to end the year above or we enter the actual crash to 290-300. That shall be the final test, failure drops us to 180 by the end of '23, success requires major macro shakeups with a positive outlook.

This is not purely technicals, the crisis in China boiling over shall be the likely inflection point into the real crash, perception of FED policy shall be the general driver of price movement, the real crash shall happen once it becomes appearant to the market itself that stagflation is inevitable. Bonds have already begun their rally, the equities market is slow to catch on. The dollar is now premium, it shall become even moreso in the coming year, a great nominal inflection upwards to follow regardless of economic recovery or depression. Buy equities at this bottom and commodities before this bottom if you predict depression is the likelier outcome.