/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>53046634
>This sounds like the perfect life.
>rural
>perfect
Nope. The only people who shill rural are coping ruralfags who are boring and think chili's is a night out or idiots here who fell for /pol/ letrad memes.
>>53047573
>this is a broke zoomer with no friends/relationship and definitely no children
And no passions or interests. Ruralfags never have interest in art or history or anything. They just want to sit on their land with a gun and smoke or drink beer. Worthless lives desu.

>>53036493
Is the stock market just as simple as following interest rates?

Case 1: If interest rates go up, markets go down b/c companies and people have to pay their debt burdens (so as to avoid further debt burdens). We could also say the incomes of both companies and people go down precisely because there is less money circulating around due to people paying back their debts.

Case 2: If interest rates go down, markets go up because companies and people are able to borrow more money at a cheaper rate. Meaning people are able to produce more things at a large scale. We could also say that incomes of both companies and people go up precisely because there is more money circulating around due to the borrowing of more money.

Case 3: If interest rates remain stagnant, markets will slightly trend upwards because of technology. Technology simply allows people to do more things for lower costs. And because the driving force between companies and people is the want for more money, companies and people seek ways to effectively use their capital.

Case 4: Volatile interest rates has no meaningful benefits. Too unpredictable for anyone to make any meaningful future predictions and contributions. Such a nation that follows volatile interest rates is a declining nation, I suspect.

So what could be a potential strategy? My understanding:

1. We are currently in case 1. Thus hold cash and buy OTM puts.
- Fed can't raise rates forever because an equilibrium will come between equities and bonds, where people are earning enough money from bonds to start becoming productive again. Thus:

2. Fed enacts case 3, which is basically to stop raising rates. Thus, once there is a signal for no more raises, it becomes important for people to start deploying capital into equities. So buy equities and ATM calls or synthetic longs or call debit spreads.

2b. If fed lowers interest rates, the same logic still applies, just stronger / more volatile.

How correct is my assessment?