/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56537134
we were oversold, it's that simple
>>56537128
this is what market looked like going into this previous weekend
more important than the Fed was the Treasury backing off of their long end issuance, allowing yields to cool from 5% to 4.6%

>>56509851
Not only will the Fed act as your backstop, just look at how the markets were going into this week
>pic related
Look at all the sectors extremely far below ATR
The fundamentals line up, the technicals line up, everything is there for this free money trade
Sell $410 SPY puts 11/3

>>56499715
I don't know
Look at pic related
maybe on Monday we get another sell off focusing on tech
but you really think Fed is going to speak, during this -10% market correction, in a way that doesn't help out their oligarch friends and stabilize markets?
I doubt it. I doubt it very much. Although it isn't officially in the Feds mandate, promoting market stability is their primary job [which is why Powell backed down in 2018]

this may help you
>pic related
this is the current state of the market going into this coming week
look at healthcare industrials especially

>>56493792
so we are getting there - but it can always get worse
>pic related
if you take a look at this, you can see that there are some sectors that are actually oversold and way out of average true range, and **should** more often than not rally and try to get back within ATR at minimum
in particular:
>XLE
>XLI
>XLC
>XLF
>XLV
where they should rally this week
however, where the bubble really is in the market is in tech / QQQ, also just look at the S&P weightings lmao. It's ridiculous how overweight tech is. Tech although it's getting there, is not that oversold (yet)
Tech can go much lower before it is way out of ATR and RSI mid 20s
and because of the extreme weighting, if tech goes down, it'll drag down the whole market
so normally, I would be arguing for a rally this week - coming out of option expiry, going into Apple earnings, going into Fed - the Fed alone will relieve a lot of hedging that was put on which will create buying pressure from the hedge unwinds (market maker selling puts had to sell shares short delta proportional to the puts they sold, if market rallies can buy back shares they sold short reinforcing the rally)
it is also possible we just go sideways, to catch up with ATR
but honestly, the fact that you can look at all of these charts in pic related and go "Oh we can go lower" and don't immediately feel that they should be bouncing hard here I think is a little indicative that we may have lower to go, that this week could be a blood bath
BUT the Fed will seek to calm markets, so doubtful that we'd really dump that hard this week, the Fed will help out their oligarch friends and keep markets stable