/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19130945
Nobody knows what the fuck is going on, or is going to happen. There's a dozen different hypotheses floating around publicly, but the world has never seen anything like this.

What we can surmise is that cashflow has been tangibly disrupted. PCE is down twice what it was during the GFC, and at record pace. Naturally retail is down alongside it. Consumer confidence shrinking, too. REITs, overleveraged, are going to get fucked. Small business and many holdings companies involved with the hospitality industry are going to bleed - especially if they "operate" under reduced capacity. There's also tons of companies that absolutely require cashflow, and it's virtually gone at the moment. Big and unpredictable cascades on the way.

Now consider emerging markets: massive dollar denominated debts while demand for the dollar soars. That means they have a harder time maintaining the debts, meanwhile they might['ve] necessarily opt[ed] to shutdown. Now, if you consider how reliant the US socioeconomic strata is formulated you realize that we're cost-dependent on EM function. To maintain probable pricing here we're dependent on the people in EM's undervaluing their time and resources to make sure we can afford the shit we import. Moreover the shit we export increases in cost with the strength of the dollar. Failing business in EMs are going to injure the US, and so will decreased appeal in USD exports.