/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>53520320
>>53520320
A Q3/Q4 recession, as indicated by the yield curve shit, would suggest we bottom out during one more leg down in the next few months.

Complicating that is the inflation shit - so not clear whether we get a new bottom in nominal terms or only real terms, but I wouldn't count my bulls before they're born.

>>53046833
>recession isn’t even here yet
Counterargument: The first half of this year had two quarters of negative GDP. Markets also generally look through recessions so if 23Q1 is dogshit and Q2 is a stumbling recovery, right about now would be the bottom.

>>52915091
Nota bene

>>52694051
Market bottoms 4-6 months before recessions end though.

If we take 1948 and 1973 as the closest analogs to our stagflationary 2023 one, 140 and 179 days from now would be mid April and late May. Counting off the mid October low that implies this recession ends in, what, early March to early April? Not totally impossible.

>>52435256
Here. Basically if you're modeling a Q4-Q1 recession that the Fed cuts and pumps us out of in Q2, then the time to go long is approximately now.

>>52351374
It's 6 different recessions. The blue dotted line is the sp500. It always bottoms months sometimes even 6 months, before the recession is at its worst point.

So when Bobo says "things are horrible out there why are stocks going up". That's now how equities are priced.

>>51404901
>>51405046
Stocks bottom 4 months before the recession ends

>>50915152
a lot of financial conditions have already tightened. from corporate bond yields, to money supply, dollar is strong. oil has come down as have most commodities. markets are forward looking and bottom 3-5 months before the recession bottom. buying at peak inflation has also been a good time

>>50900347
Markets bottom 3-5 months before the bottom in GDP because markets are forward looking. If we're already in a recession we could literally be coming out of one before the NBR declares it an official one. Pic related

>>50721018
Did you know the stock market and the economy are not the same thing?

Did you know the stock markets prices are forward looking?

Did you know the stock market bottoms 4 months prior to the bottom in GDP?

>>50624320
Here my nigga