/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56628140
recession is a dead meme now.
>oil and commodities at recession levels already without an actual recession occurring
>bond market in disbelieve, discounting debt way below the fed funds rate, re-inverting the yield curve in anticipation of an imminent fed policy shift to easy money and qe and in turn giving zombie corporations and other corporate entities time to ONCE AGAIN gorge on unwarranted, unnecessary cheap debt so they are cash laden even before a recession
>stock traders piling into mega cap tech and indices in anticipation of an imminent fed policy shift to easy money and infinite qe while being oblivious to the fact that with indices and mega cap tech vaulting up like they did for two weeks already there is no chance of a recession happening and also no incentive for the fed to change their tightening stance
>jobs market is NOT cracking (picrelated), employment has been dropping new ATH after new ATH, one month does not make a recession (there have been down months without recessions, if you believe it or not). the fed will not cut rates or change policy into a economy which is literally firing on all of the cylinders. there are more open jobs than unemployed persons, still.

>>56595434
>GDP growth forecast to drop 3.5% QoQ
show me on this chart https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
>NFPs clocking in at 150k
so?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV
picrelated
initial claims not confirming https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA
>yield curve uninverting
show me.
where is the curve un-inverting when the fed pauses and the market is piling long into bonds?

zero arguments, buddy, pal, friend.

>>56595439
the market is financing debt on a discount to the fed.
doesn't look very recessionary to me if the market can waste money like that.

>>56595443
no arguments besides a png

>>56595481
I don't believe much in supply & demand where the medium of exchange can be created ex nihilo on a whim.
But you might be on to something with that plandemic assumption.