/biz/ - Business & Finance

Quick rundown on oil if anyone is swing trading it or thinking about it on the long side:

Price action this week before OPEC comes to an official decision is meaningless. Everything hinges on OPEC doing a cut within expected range of 600k-1.5 million bps. Oil's hourly chart reflects this as it has found a holding range to wait for the news. Expect volatility if there are early leaks from the meetings. This isn't exactly a binary gamble. OPEC needs to decide on how much to cut and also for how long. Small cut with short duration is not good. Big cut with short duration is good enough for a spike but won't lead to sustained bullish trend (take profits fast). Big cut long duration is optimal but low percentage. No cut is very unlikely and obviously worst case scenario.

Price target on good news is around $55. Mediocre news $42.50. Terrible news $29. Good luck!